2024 Q3/Q4 Market Report
Happy New Year, everyone! I’m back after a brief hiatus. We sure have had a lot of downward pointing arrows of late! Here’s the crux of the matter - White Collar Recession. Quoting a Business Insider article on the subject:
But the most surprising feature of the job freeze is the pullback in tech. Hiring has plunged 27% in IT, 32% in quality assurance, and 23% in product management… in the field of program and project management, recruitment has slumped 25%. Even more surprisingly, engineering, which was long considered recession-proof, is down 26%. That kind of cutback in coders was long unthinkable in Silicon Valley, which treated programmers like rare minerals — so scarce that they needed to be preserved at all costs, regardless of how the economy was faring.
Anyone who has been looking for a job over the past year has felt the effects of this pullback. And this nadir is on the heels of a white hot, post-Covid tech job market, making things starker by comparison. In addition, salaries in tech brought many new students into the field. The net of it is that the Supply/Demand ratio hasn’t been this high possibly ever, and we’re seeing the obvious consequences: compensation is down, job searches taking longer, and tenured people are having a particularly hard time finding new opportunities.
Bank Tech Hiring 2025 - AI
It’s no surprise that AI will dominate tech hiring in 2025. For banks the investment in AI is generally around process improvement, operational efficiency, data cleaning, and document processing.
What you don’t see on this list is just about anything to do with trading systems. Our practice has focused for 10+ years on recruiting front-office engineers and quants to build trading systems. Yet the next wave of financial technology recruitment looks to be concentrated in other areas. While front-office trading technology teams will continue to have needs, it’s not an area of growth. TBH, it probably hasn’t been a growth area since before the Credit Crisis. To be sure, AI is being used in trading systems almost everywhere, from helping to write code to moving/cleaning data to optimizing trading strategies. However, these tools are being leveraged to do more with the same/fewer resources.
Further, consider the investment to leverage AI. Firms must invest upfront in people with the necessary skills, infrastructure, licenses, etc. to leverage this technology. While firms have been profitable the past couple of years, any increase in technology spending is going into AI and not towards existing technology teams. One senior IT executive told me recently that while their firm had an outstanding year, the firm’s expense ratio remains above the firm’s target. Thus, despite increased responsibilities and the firm’s profitable year, this person was not expecting to see a pay increase.
AI Use Cases
So where is AI being deployed? Dan Lattimore of the Financial Revolutionist cites five main focus areas:
Digesting data
Translating legacy code (COBOL, etc.) into modern languages
Pattern Detection – Fraud
Generating First Drafts
Natural language processing – getting answers to basic questions
Another BI article, How AI is transforming Wall Street, talks in depth about how AI is being used in investment banking (paywall – let me know if you can’t access, I have subscription and can summarize). The impact is significant, though it won’t make the job easier:
"The hours aren't going to change, because they're a product of the culture more than actual workload.. People will always find things for you to do because the expectation is that you work 80 or 100 hours a week."
Also:
“I hope it does replace a lot of the analyst work," one former junior banker at a New York-based investment bank told BI, referring to the all-nighters entry-level investment banking analysts spend assembling pitch decks or punching numbers into Excel spreadsheets. "A lot of the analyst work is bullshit."
The Competition
The focus of our practice is opportunities at elite firms that pay extremely well. Sometimes we find that candidates lose perspective on what it takes to land the top paying jobs. The post-Covid bubble made a lot of people feel like their next $200k bump is just a resume submission away. I’ve heard, “If you have anything paying 7 figures,” a few too many times over the past few years... The fact of the matter is, quite obviously, that the higher the salary, the stiffer the competition. This article is worth a read. While I don’t agree with everything in the article, I think it’s useful to know what lengths your competition may be going to.
All the news can’t be bad, right? Below are three positive anecdotes to end the year.
Technology Edge
It’s only logical that technology drives efficiency, and it’s Interesting to see Citadel leading the way on this front based on below chart. I suspect that Schonfeld’s figures may predate their large technology layoff a year ago or something else is skewing their figures, since the firm is not generally known as a technology leader among its peers. Given Citadel’s outstanding performance over recent years, their relatively lower percentage of investment staff could be seen as a bullish predictor for tech/quant hiring on the Buy side overall, as we would expect the ratio to move in that direction at other firms seeking similar success.
Slowing Hedge Fund Launches but Increased Assets
Per Reuters, new hedge fund launches in 2024 hit a 24-year low. “The low level of launches globally is down to tougher fundraising conditions in the U.S. and Europe and stiffer internal regulation in China.” However, “The hedge fund industry generally has grown in terms of one of its more closely watched metrics -- assets under management or (AUM).” This growth is largely at the bigger funds, which speaks to the institutionalization of hedge funds discussed in this BI article (paywall, but you can grab it if you’re quick :).
Private Credit – A Growth Area
I had not heard of Private Credit before listening to this episode of the Bloomberg podcast, Odd Lots (great podcast for anyone interested in learning about markets). Over the next few weeks, hardly a day passed without Private Credit coming up. Soon thereafter we placed a SE with a Private Credit business, and there continues to be a lot of activity in this space. This McKinsey article points to increased growth in Private Credit and more tech/quant opportunities for in this business:
We expect four trends to define this new ecosystem: expansion of private credit into a broader array of assets, rise of ecosystem partnerships and open-architecture business models, amplified advantages of scale for competitive differentiation, and increased focus on technology to boost scale and performance.
Note Addressable market size of $34t vs current market size roughly a tenth that size.
Current Priorities
SE: Software Engineer
QD: Quantitative Developer
QR: Quantitative Researcher
HF: Hedge Fund
Buy Side
Note: Below list only includes recently prioritized positions. We will be seeing far more positions from our clients over the coming weeks as firms finalize 2025 hiring.
Most in Demand: C++, Python, QD, Data engineering
SE – CE/SQL – Dallas
SE – C++ low-latency
QR/Trader – Crypto
QD – C++/Python, Equity StatArb
SE – Macro Technology
SE – Full-stack, Python/Typescript/React – San Francisco
QD – Global Macro - Miami
QD – Python, Flow of Funds
QD – Python, Systematic Trading, Global Equities
QD – Python, some C++ - Systematic Strategies model implementation
QR – ML PhD – medium frequency - large HF
QR – Alpha researcher - medium frequency – large HF
QR - low-latency – large HF
QR – Senior Futures/FX - low-latency – large HF
SE – Java – Key Initiatives – Large HF
Sell Side
QD – Fixed Income eTrading expert
SE – Senior SE with Risk Management experience, Python/Java
FinTech
SE – Ultra-low-latency engineer
SE - Senior Scala engineer – Distributed Systems
SE – Senior SE – Data & AI
SRE Lead
QR – Credit Quant – Macro and PT